National Need and Supply Modelling Report for 2009/10

The National Need and Supply Modelling Report for 2009/10 was prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for Disability Policy and Research Working Group to as a component of the national work to assist address the National Disability Agreement priority (a) Better Measurement of Need.  The Model provides a methodology to determine the extent to which formal disability services meet the need for support within the potential population. 

The National Need and Supply Model Report for 2009/10 provides a nationally consistent definition for measuring the potential population level demand across jurisdictions (the need model) and a consistent definition of service provision (the supply model) to estimate the level of demand not supported by disability services. 

PwC have developed an actuarial Model based on analysis of characteristics of people most likely to require support from the disability service system and uses a set of logic and assumptions of support received.  It should be noted that the figures used throughout the report are not actual raw data.  The Report provides information on the structure and assumptions of the modelling and documentation of the earlier work. 

The ‘need model’ is expressed both in terms of the estimated number of people with a support need and also the estimated quantum of support as measured by the volume of assistance required. 

The ‘supply model’ contains information on the estimated number of people receiving services and the volume and cost of services provided per person. 

The purpose of the Model is to compare need for service with service provision in order to understand gaps in service delivery and the extent to which the formal system provides support to people with disabilities.  This can be tracked over time and the impact of various scenarios of service responses (including availability of informal care and early intervention options) can be tested to assist long term planning.

The Model is also used as part of the population benchmarking framework under the National Disability Agreement priority (b) Population Benchmarking for Disability Services to measure  

·        the proportion of the potential population with high level support needs who then receive a high level support response.

·        expenditure per service user and number of service users per potential population; and

·        the proportion of the population receiving a low level support response and the proportion of people who have substantial levels of care provided informally receiving selected low level support - an interim respite benchmark.

·        An additional benchmark: the proportion of people with disability accessing disability services who receive individual support is also included as part of the Report. Whilst this benchmark is not derived as part of the Model, separate data was obtained from States and Territories to calculate this benchmark.